> ai deployment will be bottlenecked on manufacturing and installing cheap electronics everywhere; smart models deployed in many places are more useful than very smart models deployed in few places
i thought that's mostly for recycling scrap steel instead of producing new steel? (which is still an important use case, but if the country is still developing rapidly it may be insufficient)
Unironically one of the most interesting things I've read this month. I'm curious as to who might be the biggest winners (if there even are any) or losers in light of recent events.
I really enjoyed the way this turns supply chains from an abstract risk topic into something almost tactile.
The detail about sulfuric acid being used to free phosphorus for fertilizer is exactly the kind of thing school chemistry should have led with. Suddenly the periodic table feels less like homework and more like infrastructure.
Well researched and easily accessible! This helps a lot to map out in my head, even just at a surface lever, the energy/material crisis.
Not sure about the first take away though, since I have the impression (I might be wrong) that there are more than enough food products to feed everyone on the planet but they're distributed unevenly, hence the huge waste in Western countries and famine in many other places. Even inside the imperial core, the inequality is stark.
More environment-forward and human-centric policies could've been implemented to overcome such "dilemma" if we're not dominated by a profit-driven hyper capitalist economic order.
The material science point is so good… that was my exact takeaway, we’ve never needed scientists more it seems, to figure out the alternatives to everything listed here. Thank you for writing this. As I was reading I thought I need to figure out how each point implicates Africa. On the one hand, African farmers hang fertilizer the least might mean we are less susceptible to the shocks but also likely impacts our export market. On the other hand, the minerals race and the pivot from “aid to investment” makes a lot of sense now.
This is so intensive and well researched. I felt like I was back to studying at school, which literally was so boring. I used to hate chemistry because of how it was taught. I feel like you should go from a broader picture to a more specific one, i.e. application of a specific material to the details of how that material works in real life. Ah anyways, keep writing dude, this is interesting🫶🏻
this is besides the point, but this is how one uses ai in research! it was a useful tool, but the amount of care and the actual creation part is evident—you still did the work to research and write the fantastic article (& a first principles approach to supply chains really is such a fresh view)
I like how it takes a first principles approach to explain how resource bottlenecks will cause second and third order effects. I will be rereading this post many times.
Hats off for all the efforts you've put in for the research and writing this piece. Honestly, reading it was a recap of whatever I've studied about economics spread across multiple classes and chapters in my school life. At that time, I used to think why am I studying all this, but now it makes so much sense how geopolitics and global economics shape the supply chain across the world impacting countries across globe.
> ai deployment will be bottlenecked on manufacturing and installing cheap electronics everywhere; smart models deployed in many places are more useful than very smart models deployed in few places
strong +1
My understanding was that you can make without (much) coal with an electric arc furnace and the US and Japan already make most of their steel this way
Not Japan apparently
i thought that's mostly for recycling scrap steel instead of producing new steel? (which is still an important use case, but if the country is still developing rapidly it may be insufficient)
Unironically one of the most interesting things I've read this month. I'm curious as to who might be the biggest winners (if there even are any) or losers in light of recent events.
I really enjoyed the way this turns supply chains from an abstract risk topic into something almost tactile.
The detail about sulfuric acid being used to free phosphorus for fertilizer is exactly the kind of thing school chemistry should have led with. Suddenly the periodic table feels less like homework and more like infrastructure.
Well researched and easily accessible! This helps a lot to map out in my head, even just at a surface lever, the energy/material crisis.
Not sure about the first take away though, since I have the impression (I might be wrong) that there are more than enough food products to feed everyone on the planet but they're distributed unevenly, hence the huge waste in Western countries and famine in many other places. Even inside the imperial core, the inequality is stark.
More environment-forward and human-centric policies could've been implemented to overcome such "dilemma" if we're not dominated by a profit-driven hyper capitalist economic order.
The material science point is so good… that was my exact takeaway, we’ve never needed scientists more it seems, to figure out the alternatives to everything listed here. Thank you for writing this. As I was reading I thought I need to figure out how each point implicates Africa. On the one hand, African farmers hang fertilizer the least might mean we are less susceptible to the shocks but also likely impacts our export market. On the other hand, the minerals race and the pivot from “aid to investment” makes a lot of sense now.
Oh you don't capitalise 'i' when referring to yourself in first person? Essay...
...disregarded!
This is so intensive and well researched. I felt like I was back to studying at school, which literally was so boring. I used to hate chemistry because of how it was taught. I feel like you should go from a broader picture to a more specific one, i.e. application of a specific material to the details of how that material works in real life. Ah anyways, keep writing dude, this is interesting🫶🏻
this is besides the point, but this is how one uses ai in research! it was a useful tool, but the amount of care and the actual creation part is evident—you still did the work to research and write the fantastic article (& a first principles approach to supply chains really is such a fresh view)
The flow of the article is great! And the way things are explained. A very fun and informative read!
Wait, this post is really good.
I like how it takes a first principles approach to explain how resource bottlenecks will cause second and third order effects. I will be rereading this post many times.
Loved reading this- learned so much
fantastic analysis!! lots of jumping off points for people to go read further - very well done
fantastic article! loved it and learnt a lot. it led me down a few rabbit holes including desert sand vs river sand, and rubber blight bioterrorism.
just one note: i suspect you may have mispelled 'pharmaceuticals' as 'pharmapheuticals'? or perhaps its just a word i haven't encountered before
I know this was a herculean effort. still making my way through the piece, but thanks in advance!
Hats off for all the efforts you've put in for the research and writing this piece. Honestly, reading it was a recap of whatever I've studied about economics spread across multiple classes and chapters in my school life. At that time, I used to think why am I studying all this, but now it makes so much sense how geopolitics and global economics shape the supply chain across the world impacting countries across globe.